the Future, Mr. Gittes, it’s about the future……

Those words, from an insane John Houston to Jack Nicholson as Jake Gittes in the classic movie "Chinatown" could be applied equally to the "big three" digital camera manufacturers and their new product releases. Who are the big-three, you might ask? When it comes to DSLRs, that would be Canon, Nikon, and Olympus oops, make that SONY... dslrs With SONY's announcement and subsequent quick release of the new Alpha DSLR, the company has jumped to the top of the heap. Sales of the camera in Japan have already made it number-3 in the DSLR market, eclipsing other manufacturers in the process. Many might argue that this is simply a re-bodied Konica-Minolta, and while it's true a lot of the technology came from that manufacturer's intellectual-property, this camera has enough new features to warrant an "all-new" sticker as it is displayed on store shelves. SONY came out swinging and was smart-enough to bring the camera out with a full lens line in both consumer and professional levels and pricing (unlike the beautiful Olympus which came out with VERY expensive lenses and is already a dinosaur when it comes to resolution and noise-reduction). They packed it with innovative features to please both the pros and Cons and also got the camera out there to the testers and blog-sites plenty quick. Yes, this camera was probably under development well before the Sony acqusition of this part of Minolta, but, unlike the other manufactures which announce products to fit with the upcoming show schedules, SONY also delivered a product shortly after their announcement. Have you tried to get that Nikon D200 body-only? That Nikon 18-200VR lens? The Nikon 105mm VR Micro? How long ago were these products announced? Now Nikon has announced the D80 and have already pushed the "release-date" back a couple of weeks. The reasons for Nikon's delays in delivery are probably the best-kept secret in the world, and I'm sure it's for a good reason, but if you can't deliver, don't announce! What does this unkept promise do to the retailers who have to get tired of telling customers that they can't get product that was announced almost a year ago? (Photokina is almost here!) What does this do to customers who made up their mind to buy their first DSLR and find the one they originally picked is unavailable until who knows when? I'll bet that many might just switch brands, especially if they don't have a vested interest in a particular brand because of a previous heavy investment in a particular lens-mount. If a manufacturer can set his hooks in you at the lower-end of the DSLR market, and get you to buy some (or a lot) of their lenses, they probably have you as a customer for a long-time. Why do you think the competition at the entry-level of the DSLR market is so hot and heavy? Nikon trounced Canon at that end of the market with the introduction of, first, the D70 and the the D50 (don't ask me why the heck they didn't put compact-flash drives on all their cameras...maybe they'll switch to SD in their pro-cameras in the future?). They knew if they could lock in the consumer at the low end, they could bring them up the product-line in future purchases. Obviously, if you are fixed on one brand or another, that's the brand you'll buy. But this isn't really about a particular-brand, this is about what these guys will do in the near term future. Will SONY be able to INNOVATE, ANNOUNCE, and DELIVER thier future products with the speed that the Alpha came out with? Will the other manufacturers stop announcing until they can DELIVER products in a timely manner? Will this have enough of an effect to change what place the top-3 manufacturers hold in the marketplace? New product annoncements are always fun. I subscribe to many magazines (and RSS feeds) JUST to see the new product announcements. But if it's announced, and not delivered, what good does it do anybody. I could tell you right now that I'm going to make a 50-megapixel camera, that has a dynamic-range that will give you 18-stops of latitude, no noise for ISO 5400, and a depth-of-field from here-to-eternity, but if I never deliver, I might as well say I'm opening up and Apple-store on Mars. We'll see what happens at Photokina and in the near-term future, maybe all of this "way-pre-announcement" will become a thing of the past, just a marketer's gimmick for grabbing market-share. It's a gimmick that the public won't take for too long, and in the end, it'll be the manufacturer that will suffer. "It's about the future, Mr. Gittes, the future...."
About Jim Dennewill

A Southern California native, Jim Dennewell has had a fascination with photography since elementary school. Weaned on his family's old Kodak Brownie cameras (you know, the ones where everything moves backwards in the viewfinder), Jim has fostered his love for the art and tech of photography over the years. Originally known here as "Slightly Out of Focus," Jim is one of our favorite authors.

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September 1, 2006 
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[...] The camera companies are jumping to be the first to come out with new cameras, as Jimmy said. Another one, which he didn’t mention, that has caught my attention recently is the new Canon EOS Digital Rebel XTi. (I first read about it in the CanonXT group.) [...]


Definitely right, Mike! I didn’t mention the Canon specifically in my blog (glad you did), but I do see it as a serious challenger to Nikon in the “D70″ end of the market.
If Nikon can continue to innovate and DELIVER in that end of the market, they can hold on to the Number 2 slot (Canon will be hard for anybody to challenge in the Number 1 slot), but only the future knows….


Mm, tis true. I personally am a big Canon user (“fan”), but in the past month or so I’ve realized that Nikon isn’t so bad either. Haha. Though I’m still not liking Sony, primarily for their “EasyShare” line of cameras.

What’s your view on the EasyShare Sony cameras?


Well, the Kodak Easyshares are the best selling cameras in the world. I think people like their ease of use and printing. I think 3/4 of the buyers are women 9according to market-stats).
As for SONY, I don’t like their proprietary memory-sticks and had actually bought the F828 because it took both Compact-flash and memory-sticks. They make some nice stuff, it’s going to be an interesting battle in the near-term.


Hmm, I own a D200 and an 18-200mm VR…

As for the Sony, personally I don’t like the feel and I especially despise the kit lens on it. The shutter has a strange sound that bothers me to no end.

OTOH, I just love the dials on it. You can go into the viewfinder and adjust the settings without looking up. Only the D80 in this price range (I assume the L1 is out of this range) can claim this and even it is deficient (ISO/WB/QUAL adjustments). The LCD readout rotates when you rotate the body and it turns off as soon as you put it in front of your eyes. Amazing!

Obviously, the big kicker is the anti-shake.

That’s why I encouraged a coworker to buy one. I love my Nikons, but that is a personal choice.

BTW, the A100 doesn’t do memory stick, it does compact flash. It comes with a memory stick CF adapter which I think is a neat compromise.


Good points all,Terry! I have both the D200 & the 18-200 VR lens (and the 105 VR as well, it’s awesome too) and LOVE THEM TO DEATH! But we’ve been trying to get another 18-200 VR for my wife’s Nikon and we’ve been on the list for months. That’s the main reason I don’t want my favorite camera company to become an announcer and not a releaser and end up in 3rd place because of that.
It was nice to see the SONY use the CF cards, have they wised-up or is this just a carry-over from K-M?
If Nikon could at least add anti-dust to the camera (mechanical not dust-ref photo) that’d be cool. I’m still not convinced I’d want anti-shake on everything, but the 105mm VR macro may be changing my mind on that.
Thanks for the comments!


Oh yeah, and i forgot to mention I agree about Katie!

http://terrychay.com/blog/


[...] Time to Deliver – Jim over at Slightly Out Of Focus has a great rant on the failure of photography companies (pointing more to Nikon) to deliver after announcement of new products. He wonders if Sony will be able to keep promises and whether this will impact the way the big two (Nikon and Canon) release their products. [...]


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